The State of the Recovery in Public Sector Jobs, Part One
Joseph van der Naald August 25, 2021 A great deal of attention has been paid recently to increasing job counts and declining unemployment claims. The Department of Labor’s August 6 news release indicated that July witnessed the single largest one-month period of
A Look at the New York State Budget
James Orr and Merih Uctum February 10, 2021
Governor Cuomo recently announced the NY State budget for this year, the FY 2022 Executive Budget Financial Plan. Is New York in a deep budget hole? Will a new Federal spending bill help? In this post we dissect the executive budget and examine how economic developments affect budget projections and the bottom line for the current budget plan.
July 11: U.S. Budget Gap Widens to $747 Billion in 9 Months Through June
The U.S. budget deficit widened by 23% to $747.1 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year, as rising spending eclipsed a small bump in revenue from the Trump administration’s tariffs. Read more
Melting Snowballs and the Winter of Debt
Paul Krugman
January 31, 2019
Despite widespread fears, high public debt is less dangerous than commonly believed when interest rates remain below economic growth. Obsession with debt has distracted policymakers from more urgent priorities, particularly unemployment and underinvestment in public infrastructure.
Immigrant Entrepreneurship in the United States
Yoshiko Oka
January 10, 2019
As startup formation declines in the United States, immigrant entrepreneurs are playing an increasingly important role in business creation and job growth. Eliminating the International Entrepreneur Rule risks further weakening entrepreneurship and slowing innovation in the U.S. labor market.
The Credit Crunch and the Great Recession
Paul Krugman
December 08, 2018
The Great Recession was driven primarily by the collapse of the housing bubble rather than financial panic alone. While the financial crisis intensified the downturn, its role in explaining the depth and persistence of the slump is often overstated.
U.S. Tax Reform: Where Are We Now?
Rubaiyat Tasnim and the ESG
April 12, 2018
Experts debated the 2017 U.S. tax reform, questioning its timing, fiscal sustainability, and distributional effects. While supporters argue it may boost investment and wages, critics warn it will widen deficits and inequality while threatening future funding for social programs.
March 21: Federal Reserve to Raise Fed Funds Target Range to 1.50 to 1.75 Percent
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Federal Reserve FMOC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1-1/2 to 1-3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting strong labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
March 09: Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment Increased by 313,000 in February
Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 313,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in construction, retail trade, professional and business services, manufacturing, financial activities, and mining.
The Welfare State in the Age of Globalization
Branko Milanovic
March 05, 2018
It has become a truism to say that the welfare state is under stress from the effects of globalization and migration and thus may not be able to provide the same level of income support that it had provided in the past. In my previous post that looked at policies to reduce inequality in the 21st century, I mentioned that I would follow up with a discussion of the welfare state. In this post I want to go back to the origins of the welfare state to understand the origin of the current stress.
Why 20th Century Tools Cannot Be Used to Address 21st Century Income Inequality
Branko Milanovic
February 16, 2018
The remarkable period of reduced income and wealth inequality in the rich countries, roughly from the end of the Second World War to the early 1980s, relied on four pillars: strong trade unions, mass education, high taxes and large government transfers. Since the increase of inequality twenty or more years ago, the failed attempts to stem its further rise have relied on trying, or at least advocating, the expansion of all or some of the four pillars. But neither of them will do the job in the 21st century.
February 14: U.S. 12-Month CPI Inflation Rose 2.1%, Stronger Than Expected
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
How Should We Think About the Effects of Corporate Tax Cuts?
Paul Krugman
February 08, 2018
Late last year Republicans enacted a huge tax cut, mainly for corporations. They then seized on some seemingly supportive data points – investment announcements by some major corporations, bonuses paid to some employees, an uptick in some measures of wage growth – as evidence that the cut was already benefiting workers. But while there is a case for cutting corporate taxes, the logic of that case says that any benefits to workers should unfold gradually over time, not show up in a few weeks.
February 02: Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment Increased by 200,000 in January
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 200,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in construction, food services and drinking places, health care, and manufacturing.
Dream Hoarders: Is the Upper Middle Class Leaving Everyone Else Behind?
Andreas Kakolyris
January 30, 2018
On November 15, 2017, the City University of New York Graduate Center and the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality co-hosted a presentation by Richard Reeves, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, on the topic Dream Hoarders: Is the Upper Middle Class Leaving Everyone Else Behind The presentation focused on the widening gap between those in the top quintile of the income distribution and the remaining 80 percent and was based on Reeves’ latest book Dream Hoarders: How the American Upper Middle Class is Leaving Everyone Else in the Dust, Why That is a Problem and What to Do About It.
December 21: U.S. GDP Rose 3.2 Percent in Q3, Revised Downward from 3.3 Percent
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2017, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
December 13: Federal Reserve to Raise Fed Funds Target Range to 1.25 to 1.50 Percent
Effective December 14, 2017, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 1.25 to 150 percent, including overnight reverse repurchase operations.
December 08: Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment Increased by 228,000 in November
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 228,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care.
December 01: the New York State Department of Labor Reported a Loss of 14,000 Jobs Statewide in October
The New York State Department of Labor reported a loss of 14,000 jobs statewide in October, following revised job losses of 15,000 in September. Total employment is up 1.1% in the state over a year ago compared to 1.4% for the nation.
Why Does It Still Not Feel Like Recovery? A Look at Industry Performance
The Economic Studies Group
November 30, 2017
The recovery of activity following the Great Recession got off to a slow start compared to previous cycles. The recession was characterized by deep declines in output (GDP) and the largest increases in the unemployment rate since the 1930s, and it wasn’t until six years into the recovery that the level of aggregate real GDP returned to its potential. In this post, we look at the growth of output in individual industries since the recovery began.