Analysis Articles

U.S. – China Trade Conflict: Impacts on China

July 23rd, 2019|Comments Off on U.S. – China Trade Conflict: Impacts on China

Zhuo Xi
July 23, 2019

Starting from the different positions held by the Trump administration and the Chinese government on issues such as the bilateral trade balance, market access, and intellectual property transfers, China and the U.S., the world’s two largest economies, have been quarreling over trade for more than a year. Read more

A Primer on Democratic Socialism

June 30th, 2019|Comments Off on A Primer on Democratic Socialism

Twisha Asher
June 30, 2019

In 2017, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez beat Joe Crowley to claim the seat for New York’s 14th district in a momentous political upset. As a self-described Democratic Socialist, Ocasio-Cortez’s election spurred debate across the political spectrum. Read more

Janet Yellen in Conversation with Paul Krugman

May 30th, 2019|Comments Off on Janet Yellen in Conversation with Paul Krugman

Fotios Siokis
May 30, 2019

On December 10, 2018, the Graduate Center hosted an attention-grabbing discussion on the causes of the Great Recession and the possibility of a future downturn due to high levels of corporate indebtedness. Read more

Sturdy Job Growth in New York City Continues

May 3rd, 2019|Comments Off on Sturdy Job Growth in New York City Continues

James Orr
April 29, 2019

The recovery and expansion of employment in New York City that began following the financial crisis and downturn continued into its ninth year in early 2019. This post examines recent overall job growth in the city and... Read more

Measuring Inequality… Are we doing it right?

April 2nd, 2019|Comments Off on Measuring Inequality… Are we doing it right?

Andreas Kakolyris
April 01, 2019

Two years after the death of Sir Anthony Barnes “Tony” Atkinson, characterized as the father of modern inequality research by Paul Krugman, the question of measuring inequality remains more crucial than ever. Read more

The Sword of Damocles (Part II): The Precariousness of the Greek Banking System during the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis

March 4th, 2019|Comments Off on The Sword of Damocles (Part II): The Precariousness of the Greek Banking System during the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis

Fotios Siokis
March 04, 2019

With the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 and the transmission of the crisis to world financial markets, financial liquidity started to drain and investors’ confidence began to deteriorate. Central banks around the globe initiated unprecedented expansions of their liquidity... Read more

The Sword of Damocles (Part I): The Precariousness of the Greek Banking System During the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis

February 19th, 2019|Comments Off on The Sword of Damocles (Part I): The Precariousness of the Greek Banking System During the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis

Fotios Siokis
February 19, 2019

The Greek economy appears finally to have turned the corner with the Government’s announcement, in August 2018, that the country has exited its third bailout package. This article examines the role of banks in the recovery and the debt crisis. Read more

Melting Snowballs and the Winter of Debt

January 31st, 2019|Comments Off on Melting Snowballs and the Winter of Debt

Paul Krugman
January 31, 2019

Do you remember the winter of debt? In late 2010 and early 2011, the U.S. economy had barely begun to recover from the 2008 financial crisis. Around 9 percent of the labor force was still unemployed... Read more

Immigrant Entrepreneurship in the United States

January 11th, 2019|Comments Off on Immigrant Entrepreneurship in the United States

Yoshiko Oka
January 10, 2019

On May 25, 2018, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced a proposal to end the International Entrepreneur Rule, which was published at the end of the Obama Administration. Unlike many other countries, the United States has no visa... Read more

The Credit Crunch and the Great Recession

December 8th, 2018|Comments Off on The Credit Crunch and the Great Recession

Paul Krugman
December 08, 2018

Ben Bernanke wrote a paper arguing that the financial crisis and the resulting credit crunch were central to the Great Recession. His summary measures of financial conditions fall into two categories... Read more

Argentina’s Latest Crisis

November 16th, 2018|Comments Off on Argentina’s Latest Crisis

Meng-Ting Chen and Joseph van der Naald
November 16, 2018

Following a stunning fall in the value of its peso, a total loss of nearly 50% for 2018, and interest rates hitting 60%, Argentina’s economy appeared to be facing the strong likelihood of a crisis. While the government responded by taking a number of measures... Read more

Why is New York Job Growth Slowing?

October 31st, 2018|Comments Off on Why is New York Job Growth Slowing?

Fadime Demiralp and James Orr
October 31, 2018

Employment data through the third quarter of 2018 show job growth in New York City and State continuing to moderate from the relatively high rates reached earlier in the recovery. In this post we examine the sources of this cooling off of job... Read more

The Turkish Currency and Debt Crises

September 22nd, 2018|Comments Off on The Turkish Currency and Debt Crises

Merih Uctum and Zhuo Xi
September 22, 2018

On August 9 the Turkish currency, the Lira, hit record lows and rattled emerging markets. The travails of the Argentinian economy subsequently weakened the Lira further. In this analysis article, we examine the economic and financial reasons behind the turmoil... Read more

A Primer on Real Versus Nominal

July 22nd, 2018|Comments Off on A Primer on Real Versus Nominal

Harvey Gram
July 22, 2018

The word “nominal” suggests insignificance. A “nominal tip” is small. “Nominally in charge” means “in name only” i.e. not really in charge. A money-valued variable such as GDP in dollars, pesos, Euros, etc. is described as... Read more

A Primer on Stocks and Flows (Part 2)

June 6th, 2018|Comments Off on A Primer on Stocks and Flows (Part 2)

Harvey Gram
June 06, 2018

“Debts” and “deficits” seem to have negative connotations. Still, every debt/liability for one party is a credit/asset for some counter-party who willingly holds the corresponding security; and every deficit has its matching surplus somewhere in a complete and consistent set of accounts. Read more

A Primer on Stocks and Flows (Part 1)

May 19th, 2018|Comments Off on A Primer on Stocks and Flows (Part 1)

Harvey Gram
May 18, 2018

The distinction between stocks and flows is essential to economic reasoning. In many cases, it is just common sense. If I tell you that my income is $1000, am I a prince or a pauper? Is it $1000 per hour or $1000 per year? Income is a flow, which must have a time dimension in order to be... Read more

A Primer on Exchange Traded Funds: Costs and Benefits

April 30th, 2018|Comments Off on A Primer on Exchange Traded Funds: Costs and Benefits

Ernesto Garcia
April 30, 2018

Exchanged Traded Funds (ETFs) have been around since 1989. By the end of 2017, global ETF assets totaled $4.569 trillion. The main reason ETFs have become so popular is straightforward—an individual investor can own, through the ETF, a basket of assets that... Read more

U.S. Tax Reform: Where Are We Now?

April 13th, 2018|Comments Off on U.S. Tax Reform: Where Are We Now?

Rubaiyat Tasnim and the ESG
April 12, 2018

On February 28, 2018, the Graduate Center Public Programs and the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality held a panel on tax reform where experts discussed its implications and how it will impact different constituencies. Panelists were: Larry Kotlikoff... Read more

New York City Job Growth: Healthy, but Divergent Across Sectors

March 28th, 2018|Comments Off on New York City Job Growth: Healthy, but Divergent Across Sectors

James Orr
March 27, 2018

Recently-released employment data show job growth in New York City in 2017 was down only mildly from its pace in 2016 and is still above the comparable nationwide rate. On an average annual basis, employment in New York City expanded 2.0 percent in 2017 following a gain of... Read more

The Welfare State in the Age of Globalization

March 6th, 2018|Comments Off on The Welfare State in the Age of Globalization

Branko Milanovic
March 05, 2018

It has become a truism to say that the welfare state is under stress from the effects of globalization and migration and thus may not be able to provide the same level of income support that it had provided in the past. Read more

Why 20th Century Tools Cannot Be Used to Address 21st Century Income Inequality

February 16th, 2018|Comments Off on Why 20th Century Tools Cannot Be Used to Address 21st Century Income Inequality

Branko Milanovic
February 16, 2018

The remarkable period of reduced income and wealth inequality in the rich countries, roughly from the end of the Second World War to the early 1980s, relied on four pillars: strong trade unions, mass education, high taxes and large government transfers. Read more

How Should We Think About the Effects of Corporate Tax Cuts?

February 8th, 2018|Comments Off on How Should We Think About the Effects of Corporate Tax Cuts?

Paul Krugman
February 08, 2018

Late last year Republicans enacted a huge tax cut, mainly for corporations. They then seized on some seemingly supportive data points – investment announcements by some major corporations, bonuses paid to some employees, an uptick in some measures of wage growth... Read more

Dream Hoarders: Is the Upper Middle Class Leaving Everyone Else Behind?

January 30th, 2018|Comments Off on Dream Hoarders: Is the Upper Middle Class Leaving Everyone Else Behind?

Andreas Kakolyris
January 30, 2018

On November 15, 2017, the City University of New York Graduate Center and the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality co-hosted a presentation by Richard Reeves, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, on the topic... Read more

A Primer on Rules of Origin in NAFTA Negotiations and What Is Next

December 31st, 2017|Comments Off on A Primer on Rules of Origin in NAFTA Negotiations and What Is Next

Richard J Nugent III
December 22, 2017

The latest round of negotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on November 21 ended with no major breakthroughs on contentious issues such as autos, dairy and rules of origin among others. The US administration’s demand that at least half of a NAFTA-qualifying vehicle... Read more

Why Does It Still Not Feel Like Recovery? A Look at Industry Performance

November 30th, 2017|Comments Off on Why Does It Still Not Feel Like Recovery? A Look at Industry Performance

The Economic Studies Group
November 30, 2017

The recovery of activity following the Great Recession got off to a slow start compared to previous cycles. The recession was characterized by deep declines in output (GDP) and the largest increases in the unemployment rate since the 1930s, and it wasn’t until six years into the recovery... Read more

Greek Debt in Historical Perspective: An Opinion Article

November 22nd, 2017|Comments Off on Greek Debt in Historical Perspective: An Opinion Article

Anthony Rodolakis
November 22, 2017

Current fiscal proposals are projected to lead to a sizeable increase in U.S. debt and while people point to the Greek crisis to warn about high debt, a closer look at Greece’s debt history reveals few similarities. Modern Greek economic history is a history of debt. Read more

The Future of Health Care in America: A Panel Discussion at the Graduate Center

November 1st, 2017|Comments Off on The Future of Health Care in America: A Panel Discussion at the Graduate Center

Merih Uctum
October 31, 2017

On October 2, 2017, the Graduate Center hosted a debate on healthcare policy with distinguished panelists: Jonathan Gruber, MIT, one of the main advisors on Obamacare, and the previous health reform known as Romneycare... Read more

Is the New York Economy Slowing Down?

October 27th, 2017|Comments Off on Is the New York Economy Slowing Down?

James Orr
October 26, 2017

Recently-released employment figures show the number of jobs in New York State and New York City declined sharply in September: The state lost about 34,000 jobs and about two-thirds of the decline occurred in the city, suggesting a possible slowing of the robust employment... Read more

Rising Interest Rates, Mortgage Interest Rates, and New York Home Prices

September 16th, 2017|Comments Off on Rising Interest Rates, Mortgage Interest Rates, and New York Home Prices

Richmond Kyei Fordjour
September 15, 2017

Conventional wisdom tells us that a rise in interest rates hurts the real estate sector since higher mortgage rates discourage first-time homebuyers and raises costs of existing mortgages. Surprisingly, the recent trends in mortgage rates and in housing market indices do not support this view. Read more

Federal Funds Rate Hike and Sovereign Risk in Latin America

September 1st, 2017|Comments Off on Federal Funds Rate Hike and Sovereign Risk in Latin America

Miguel Acosta-Henao
August 31, 2017

The Fed has started increasing the federal funds rate, reversing its decade long accommodative monetary policy.  The last time such a reversal in the Fed policy occurred, the impact on emerging markets in Latin America was deleterious. This article examines if history will repeat itself. Read more

How Bad Will It Be If We Hit the Debt Ceiling?

August 20th, 2017|Comments Off on How Bad Will It Be If We Hit the Debt Ceiling?

Paul Krugman
August 19, 2017

The odds of a self-inflicted US debt crisis now look pretty good: hard-line Republicans are eager to hold the economy hostage, Democrats are in no mood to make concessions, and Trump is both spiteful and ignorant. So it looks fairly likely that by October or so there will come a day when... Read more

Which U.S. Administration is Fiscally Responsible?

July 31st, 2017|Comments Off on Which U.S. Administration is Fiscally Responsible?

Merih Uctum
July 31, 2017

Several times since 2010 the U.S. government has faced the possibility of hitting a debt ceiling, a situation where, if not raised, the U.S. Treasury is not able to borrow to pay its bills on expenditures that were voted and already incurred. Since the U.S. Congress ratifies the spending... Read more

A Finger Exercise on Hyperglobalization

July 12th, 2017|Comments Off on A Finger Exercise on Hyperglobalization

Paul Krugman
July 11, 2017

The days when surging world trade was the big story seem like a long time ago. For one thing, trade has stopped surging, and seems to have plateaued. For another, we have faced more pressing issues, like financial crisis. Read more

The United States, Mexico, and NAFTA

June 29th, 2017|Comments Off on The United States, Mexico, and NAFTA

The Economic Studies Group
June 28, 2017

The terms of current and proposed U.S. trade agreements are getting renewed attention as to their impacts on the U.S. economy and workforce. Recently, U.S. trade with Mexico has become a particular focus for reconsideration as trade between the two countries has grown remarkably since... Read more

How Important is the Finance Sector to the New York City Economy?

June 9th, 2017|Comments Off on How Important is the Finance Sector to the New York City Economy?

James Orr
June 09, 2017

Finance has long been considered a key sector in the New York City economy.  The sector generates about 30 percent of the earnings of workers throughout the city, and thus developments in the sector are critically important for the performance of the overall city economy. Read more

El Super Clasico: Trade and Technology Duke it out at CUNY

May 7th, 2017|Comments Off on El Super Clasico: Trade and Technology Duke it out at CUNY

Branko Milanovic
April 27, 2017

Graduate Center CUNY organized yesterday (April 26) a star-studded discussion of the effects of trade on US jobs and wages. The participants were David Autor and Ann Harrison, both authors of seminal economic papers on the effects of China’s imports on US employment and wages... Read more

The New York City Labor Market: Recent Developments

April 9th, 2017|Comments Off on The New York City Labor Market: Recent Developments

James Orr
April 04/Revised April 09, 2017

Recently-revised employment data show New York City jobs grew 2.2 percent in 2016, more than 90,000 jobs, well above the national growth rate of 1.8 percent and statewide growth of 1.5 percent.  The relatively strong job performance in the city compared to the nation did not develop... Read more

Two Theses on Health Policy

March 13th, 2017|0 Comments

Paul Krugman
January 10/March 7, 2017

You may be surprised at the evident panic now seizing Republicans, who finally — thanks to James Comey and Vladimir Putin — are in a position to do what they always wanted, and kill Obamacare. How can it be that they’re not ready with a replacement plan? Read more

  • Timothy Goodspeed Article

Learning about Tax Policy: Business Losses and Corporate Form

January 20th, 2017|0 Comments

Timothy Goodspeed
January 06, 2017

The revelation of the first page of Donald Trump’s 1995 tax return during the 2016 election campaign by the NY Times created a large controversy. At first glance the public may wonder about two issues: (1) why does the tax code allow a company’s losses to be carried over to other years, and... Read more

A Primer on Brexit

January 7th, 2017|0 Comments

Merih Uctum
December 20, 2016

In a referendum on June 23, 2016 Britain voted to leave the European single market paving the way to further turmoil in Europe. This note summarizes why this happened and the implications for Britain when it pulls out. Read more

  • NY Labor Markets

New York Labor Market Developments

January 6th, 2017|0 Comments

James Orr
December 21, 2016

The jobs data for the third quarter of 2016 showed statewide employment levels up 1.2 percent over the same period in 2015, somewhat below the comparable national rate of 1.7 percent. Across the state growth rates varied quite a bit though New York City continued to drive the expansion. The... Read more