Main Analysis
Main Analyses are timely, objective investigations of current policy issues that are of regional, national, and international scope.
New York City Employment Recovery Complete, but Uneven across Industries
Khaled Eltokhy and James Orr January 20, 2025
By the start of 2024 New York City employment had reached its pre-pandemic level of 4.7 million jobs, and more than 55,000 new jobs were added through November. The city’s recovery from the significant pandemic-related disruptions defied some predictions though several city industries continue to face challenges. In this post we look at the industries leading the recovery and expansion of jobs, including the traditionally strong Healthcare and Professional and Business Services industries, along with Finance. We also look at industries where job counts have not yet recovered, including Retail Trade where the adverse effects of efforts to control the pandemic, as well as the increase in remote work, continue to have an impact.
The Transformation of the Diacritic U.S. Banking System and the Advent of the Dominant Financial Institutions
Fotis Siokis
June 24, 2024
Over the past forty years, the unique U.S. banking system has faced significant competitive challenges, in a rapidly changing technological environment, along with far-reaching regulatory reforms, ushering in an era of remarkable consolidation. In this post we outline the differences of the US Banking system compared to the other global banking systems, its transformation and how it evolved over the years.
New York’s Employment Recovery: Almost There but Virus Effects Linger, New Issues Emerge
Gillian Fuchs and James Orr January 31, 2024 Nearly four years after the onset of Covid-19 how is employment in New York City faring? In this post we outline the pattern of recovery of employment in the City and
A Look at the New York State Budget
James Orr and Merih Uctum February 10, 2021
Governor Cuomo recently announced the NY State budget for this year, the FY 2022 Executive Budget Financial Plan. Is New York in a deep budget hole? Will a new Federal spending bill help? In this post we dissect the executive budget and examine how economic developments affect budget projections and the bottom line for the current budget plan.
New York’s Economy Trying to Heal From the COVID-19 Crisis
Fadime Demiralp and James Orr
October 31, 2020
Deep declines in employment across New York resulted from the efforts to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Where does the economy stand? What factors will affect the recovery? We address these questions in this post. Read more
New York City Jobs Up but Growth Moderates Through the Third Quarter 2019
Meng-Ting Chen and James Orr
December 29, 2019
New York City employment is now well into its ninth year of growth and jobs across a variety of sector continue to expand. Read more
Sturdy Job Growth in New York City Continues
James Orr
April 29, 2019
New York City’s job recovery continued into early 2019, with employment growth exceeding both New York State and the national average. While overall gains remained solid, job growth differed sharply across industries, revealing structural shifts shaping the city’s labor market.
Why is New York Job Growth Slowing?
Fadime Demiralp and James Orr
October 31, 2018
Job growth in New York City and New York State slowed through the third quarter of 2018, falling below the national pace after years of stronger performance. Moderating growth across several large sectors highlights shifting dynamics in the region’s labor market.
New York City Job Growth: Healthy, but Divergent Across Sectors
James Orr
March 27, 2018
Job growth in New York City remained solid in 2017 but slowed from the rapid pace of earlier years. While major service sectors continued to add jobs, weaker performance in retail and manufacturing highlights a gradual cooling in the city’s labor market.
Is the New York Economy Slowing Down?
James Orr
October 26, 2017
Recently-released employment figures show the number of jobs in New York State and New York City declined sharply in September: The state lost about 34,000 jobs and about two-thirds of the decline occurred in the city, suggesting a possible slowing of the robust employment... Read more
Rising Interest Rates, Mortgage Interest Rates, and New York Home Prices
Richmond Kyei Fordjour
September 15, 2017
Conventional wisdom tells us that a rise in interest rates hurts the real estate sector since higher mortgage rates discourage first-time homebuyers and raises costs of existing mortgages. Surprisingly, the recent trends in mortgage rates and in housing market indices do not support this view. Read more
How Important is the Finance Sector to the New York City Economy?
James Orr
June 09, 2017
Finance has long been considered a key sector in the New York City economy. The sector generates about 30 percent of the earnings of workers throughout the city, and thus developments in the sector are critically important for the performance of the overall city economy. Read more
Melting Snowballs and the Winter of Debt
Paul Krugman
January 31, 2019
Despite widespread fears, high public debt is less dangerous than commonly believed when interest rates remain below economic growth. Obsession with debt has distracted policymakers from more urgent priorities, particularly unemployment and underinvestment in public infrastructure.
Immigrant Entrepreneurship in the United States
Yoshiko Oka
January 10, 2019
As startup formation declines in the United States, immigrant entrepreneurs are playing an increasingly important role in business creation and job growth. Eliminating the International Entrepreneur Rule risks further weakening entrepreneurship and slowing innovation in the U.S. labor market.
The Credit Crunch and the Great Recession
Paul Krugman
December 08, 2018
The Great Recession was driven primarily by the collapse of the housing bubble rather than financial panic alone. While the financial crisis intensified the downturn, its role in explaining the depth and persistence of the slump is often overstated.
U.S. Tax Reform: Where Are We Now?
Rubaiyat Tasnim and the ESG
April 12, 2018
Experts debated the 2017 U.S. tax reform, questioning its timing, fiscal sustainability, and distributional effects. While supporters argue it may boost investment and wages, critics warn it will widen deficits and inequality while threatening future funding for social programs.
The Pandemic and the Emerging Markets Crisis: How Fragile are the Economies?
Utku Demir and Merih Uctum
June 11, 2020
The Emerging Market (EM) economies that came out of the 2008 financial crisis relatively faster than advanced economies are hard hit by a quadruple-whammy this time: the pandemic, capital outflows, economic recession, and debt crisis.Read more
Lessons from Taiwan’s Healthcare Reform
William B. Thorne
November 27, 2019
Taiwan's single-payer National Health Insurance system was implemented in 1995 and designed using the U.S. Medicare program as a template.Read more
Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional After All?
Fotios Siokis
October 21, 2019
What are unconventional monetary policies? How are they implemented in the European Union? What does the future look like? In this article we address these questions. On September 12,2019, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new monetary stimulus package... Read more
Trump’s Trade Quagmire
Paul Krugman
August 30, 2019
Remember the Vietnam quagmire? In political discourse, “quagmire” has come to have a quite specific meaning. It’s what happens when a government has committed itself to a policy that isn’t working but can’t bring itself to admit failure and cut its losses.Read more