Recent Articles
April 12: IMF Projects a Slowdown in Economic Growth in 2019
The economic outlook in industrial economies and major emerging markets is deteriorating. The IMF cut its economic forecasts for growth in 2019 to 3.3% from 3.7% in October. Read more
Measuring Inequality… Are we doing it right?
Andreas Kakolyris
April 01, 2019
Traditional economic indicators often mask the realities of rising inequality and limited social mobility. Revisiting the Gini coefficient alongside Atkinson’s inequality index highlights the need for better measures to understand well-being and guide economic policy.
March 22: U.S. Government Yield Bond Curve Inverted for the First Time Since 2007
The U.S. market’s most reliable recession indicator flashed red on Friday, when the Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. Is the next economic downturn here? Read more
March 06: U.S. Posts Record Annual Trade Deficit of $621 Billion
The U.S. international trade deficit increased in 2018, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit increased from $552.3 billion in 2017 to $621.0 billion in 2018, as imports increased more than exports. Read more
The Sword of Damocles (Part II): The Precariousness of the Greek Banking System during the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis
Fotios Siokis
March 04, 2019
Despite large-scale liquidity support and bank recapitalizations, Greece’s banking system has struggled to restore credit growth. High levels of non-performing loans remain the key obstacle to financial stability and economic recovery.
February 28: U.S. GDP Rose at an Annual Rate of 2.6 Percent in the Fourth Quarter of 2018
U.S. GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to the “initial” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. Read more
The Sword of Damocles (Part I): The Precariousness of the Greek Banking System During the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis
Fotios Siokis
February 19, 2019
Although Greece exited its bailout program in 2018 and returned to modest growth, its banking system remains too fragile to support the recovery. Heavy exposure to sovereign debt, repeated bank recapitalizations, and a surge in non-performing loans have left banks unable to finance new investment.
Melting Snowballs and the Winter of Debt
Paul Krugman
January 31, 2019
Despite widespread fears, high public debt is less dangerous than commonly believed when interest rates remain below economic growth. Obsession with debt has distracted policymakers from more urgent priorities, particularly unemployment and underinvestment in public infrastructure.