Recent Articles
The Turkish Currency and Debt Crises
Merih Uctum and Zhuo Xi
September 22, 2018
The sharp collapse of Turkey’s lira in August exposed vulnerabilities beneath years of strong growth. Heavy private-sector foreign borrowing, rising global interest rates, and political tensions triggered a classic emerging-market currency crisis. Surging inflation, mounting debt burdens, and wavering confidence now threaten growth, raising concerns about contagion to other economies and to international banks.
A Primer on Real Versus Nominal
Harvey Gram
July 22, 2018
Behind headline growth figures lies a fundamental measurement challenge: separating real economic expansion from rising prices. Different price indexes weigh spending shifts and quality change in distinct ways, shaping how inflation and growth are recorded. Small biases in inflation estimates can translate into large misreadings of real growth—an issue with economic and political consequences.
A Primer on Stocks and Flows (Part 2)
Harvey Gram
June 06, 2018
Debates over government debt often blur rhetoric with economics. Debt and deficits are not inherently burdens, but financing choices that must be weighed against the benefits they support. Focusing on stocks versus flows, debt service rather than headline ratios, and the accounting links between deficits and surpluses clarifies why rising debt need not signal crisis—and why careful measurement matters for sound policy.
A Primer on Stocks and Flows (Part 1)
Harvey Gram
May 18, 2018
Clear economic thinking begins with the distinction between stocks and flows. Income, saving, deficits, and trade balances only make sense when time is explicit, while wealth, debt, and assets are measured at a point in time. Applying this framework—from households to national accounts—clarifies debates over deficits, foreign ownership, and sectoral balances, and dispels common misconceptions about borrowing and sustainability.
A Primer on Exchange Traded Funds: Costs and Benefits
Ernesto Garcia
April 30, 2018
ETFs have transformed investing by offering low-cost, diversified exposure traded like stocks throughout the day. Their structure, built on creation and redemption by authorized participants, helps prices track underlying assets. But as ETFs grow larger, active trading and liquidity risks raise concerns that shocks in individual assets could spread more broadly through markets.
U.S. Tax Reform: Where Are We Now?
Rubaiyat Tasnim and the ESG
April 12, 2018
A panel of leading economists weighed the promises and pitfalls of the 2017 U.S. tax reform, highlighting sharp disagreements over growth, inequality, and fiscal risk. While supporters emphasized capital inflows and wage gains, critics warned of rising deficits, regressive distributional effects, and long-term pressure on social programs, underscoring unresolved tensions at full employment.
New York City Job Growth: Healthy, but Divergent Across Sectors
James Orr
March 27, 2018
Employment growth in New York City remained solid in 2017 but continued to ease from the rapid gains of earlier years. While the city still outpaced state and national job growth, slowing momentum reflects softer expansion in key sectors and persistent regional disparities. Looking ahead, service industries are expected to drive growth amid risks from national conditions and tax policy changes.
The Welfare State in the Age of Globalization
Branko Milanovic
March 05, 2018
The modern welfare state is strained by the forces that once lay beyond its design. Built on shared risks and broad participation, it now confronts rising inequality, social polarization, and large-scale migration that weaken solidarity and mass coverage. Globalization challenges the fiscal and political foundations of redistribution, raising difficult questions about sustainability and reform in advanced economies.