Recent Articles
Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional After All?
Fotios Siokis
October 21, 2019
The ECB introduced new unconventional monetary measures in September 2019 to counter persistent low inflation and weak growth. With rates at the zero lower bound, tools such as negative deposit rates, forward guidance, renewed quantitative easing, and targeted long-term loans aim to boost lending and inflation, though risks to banks and financial stability remain.
Trump’s Trade Quagmire
Paul Krugman
August 30, 2019
Krugman argues that Trump’s trade war has become a policy quagmire: tariffs are large and economically damaging but fail to reduce the trade deficit or force Chinese concessions. With limited help from the Fed, escalation risks retaliation, currency conflict, and significant harm to the U.S. and global economy.
U.S. – China Trade Conflict: Impacts on China
Zhuo Xi
July 23, 2019
This article examines whether the U.S.–China trade war has materially affected China’s economy. While tariffs have slowed growth and pressured markets, their direct macroeconomic impact remains limited so far due to China’s reduced reliance on exports, controlled currency depreciation, and domestically held debt. Risks persist for stocks, supply chains, and long-term growth.
A Primer on Democratic Socialism
Twisha Asher
June 30, 2019
This article clarifies democratic socialism and compares the U.S. with OECD countries that have stronger welfare states. Using data on taxation, inequality, poverty, education, health, and pensions, it shows that higher public spending is associated with lower inequality and poverty and better social outcomes, despite the U.S. having higher GDP per capita.
Janet Yellen in Conversation with Paul Krugman
Fotios Siokis
May 30, 2019
A discussion at the Graduate Center featured Janet Yellen and Paul Krugman examining the causes of the Great Recession. Yellen described warning signs in housing and lending, regulatory blind spots, and excessive leverage, while explaining why the Fed underestimated the crisis’s magnitude and later relied on stress tests and quantitative easing amid a liquidity trap.
Sturdy Job Growth in New York City Continues
James Orr
April 29, 2019
New York City employment continued its long expansion into early 2019, with jobs growing 2.0 percent year over year—outpacing both New York State and the nation. Growth varied widely by industry, led by health care, construction, and professional services, while manufacturing continued to decline. Slower but steady job growth is expected ahead.
Measuring Inequality… Are we doing it right?
Andreas Kakolyris
April 01, 2019
Traditional indicators like GDP and the Gini coefficient only partially capture rising inequality. Drawing on Tony Atkinson’s work, this article argues for alternative and multidimensional measures that better reflect well-being, risk, and social mobility. Such measures can improve public debate and help policymakers address inequality more effectively.
The Sword of Damocles (Part II): The Precariousness of the Greek Banking System during the Great Sovereign Debt Crisis
Fotios Siokis
March 04, 2019
Greek banks remain unable to support economic recovery despite massive liquidity support and recapitalizations. Credit growth is constrained by an exceptionally high stock of non-performing loans—over 45% of total loans—which has made banks risk-averse and reduced lending to firms, especially SMEs. Clearing bad loans is essential to restore credit and growth.