Recent Articles
August 30: Revised Q2 GDP Growth Came in Higher Than Expected at 3%
Real gross domestic product increased 3.0 percent in the second quarter of 2017, according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate was 0.4 percentage point more than the “advance” estimate released in July. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent.
August 17: The New York State Department of Labor reported that more than 21,000 jobs were added in the state in July.
The New York State Department of Labor reported that more than 21,000 jobs were added in the state in July. Over the past year total state employment is up 1.5 percent, matching the 1.5 percent job growth rate nationwide. Growth in the state was helped by a strong expansion of jobs in New York City.
How Bad Will It Be If We Hit the Debt Ceiling?
Paul Krugman
August 19, 2017
The odds of a self-inflicted US debt crisis now look pretty good: hard-line Republicans are eager to hold the economy hostage, Democrats are in no mood to make concessions, and Trump is both spiteful and ignorant. So it looks fairly likely that by October or so there will come a day when the U.S. government stops paying some of its bills, including interest on debt.
August 04: Total Employment Increased by 209,00 in July, and the Unemployment Rate Was Little Changed at 4.3 Percent
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in food services and drinking places, professional and business services, and health care.
Which U.S. Administration is Fiscally Responsible?
Merih Uctum
July 31, 2017
Several times since 2010 the U.S. government has faced the possibility of hitting a debt ceiling, a situation where, if not raised, the U.S. Treasury is not able to borrow to pay its bills on expenditures that were voted and already incurred. Since the U.S. Congress ratifies the spending package, raising the debt ceiling to finance the spending has typically been automatic. But that was not the case in 2013 where the debt ceiling conflict culminated in a government shutdown.
Tech. Note: Which U.S. Administration is Fiscally Responsible?
Merih Uctum
July 31, 2017
We conduct a time series analysis of the government reaction function using impulse response of the primary surplus/GDP ratio to an increase in debt/GDP ratio. This is one of the metrics used in the fiscal policy literature to measure the sustainability of the public finances.
A Finger Exercise on Hyperglobalization
Paul Krugman
July 11, 2017
The days when surging world trade was the big story seem like a long time ago. For one thing, trade has stopped surging, and seems to have plateaued. For another, we have faced more pressing issues, like financial crisis. Read more
The United States, Mexico, and NAFTA
The Economic Studies Group
June 28, 2017
The terms of current and proposed U.S. trade agreements are getting renewed attention as to their impacts on the U.S. economy and workforce. Recently, U.S. trade with Mexico has become a particular focus for reconsideration as trade between the two countries has grown remarkably since... Read more