Recent Articles
The Math of the One Big Beautiful Bill
Mark G. Sheppard
June 29, 2025
With H.R. 1 poised for a reconciliation vote that requires only a simple majority, small shifts in Senate votes could determine its fate. Fiscal scorecards differ because assumptions about economic growth and offsets change projected deficits. The summary outlines how numerical disagreements shape debate and what those figures imply for distribution and macroeconomic risk..
The Election That Economists Lost
Mark G. Sheppard
February 25, 2025
Economists and major institutions depicted robust economic indicators leading into the 2024 election, yet voter sentiment diverged sharply around cost-of-living and wage trends. Traditional election models overlooked these disparities, misjudging the impact of economic fundamentals on voting behavior and contributing to unexpected outcomes despite favorable headline metrics.
New York City Employment Recovery Complete, but Uneven across Industries
Khaled Eltokhy and James Orr
January 20, 2025
New York City employment has finally returned to its pre-pandemic level, led by healthcare, professional services, and finance. Yet the recovery remains uneven as retail and hospitality lag amid remote work and shifting consumer patterns. With population changes, office attendance still below normal, and new policy uncertainties ahead, job growth is expected to slow but remain positive.
The Transformation of the Diacritic U.S. Banking System and the Advent of the Dominant Financial Institutions
Fotis Siokis
June 24, 2024
The U.S. banking system has been reshaped by decades of deregulation, technological change, and repeated crises, producing sweeping consolidation. A once-fragmented landscape of community banks has given way to a handful of dominant institutions, alongside powerful nonbank competitors. While consolidation has boosted scale and resilience, it has also raised concerns about competition, risk, and access to credit.
New York’s Employment Recovery: Almost There but Virus Effects Linger, New Issues Emerge
Gillian Fuchs and James Orr
January 31, 2024
Nearly four years after the pandemic shock, New York City employment has returned close to its pre-Covid peak, driven by healthcare, professional services, and finance. The recovery, however, remains uneven as retail trade lags amid remote work and shifting consumer behavior. Falling unemployment masks a smaller workforce, while asylum-related costs add new fiscal pressures.
Silicon Valley Bank Failure Explained
Fotis Siokis
March 28, 2023
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank exposed how rapid interest rate hikes can destabilize institutions built on fragile funding models. A surge of uninsured deposits was funneled into long-duration securities, leaving the bank highly exposed as rates rose and bond values fell. Lax supervision and poor risk management turned balance-sheet stress into a historic bank run.
New York City’s Evolving Jobs Recovery
Maryam Fatemi and James Orr
September 7, 2022
New York City’s jobs recovery from the pandemic shock has been uneven across industries. While finance, professional services, healthcare, and tech have rebounded strongly—some exceeding pre-pandemic levels—retail, hospitality, and construction continue to lag. Remote work, population shifts, and changing consumer behavior shape the path forward, even as tech employment and wages remain a key source of resilience.
Will China Surpass the U.S. to Become the Number One Economic Power?
Hengzhong Liu
June 18, 2022
China is likely to surpass the United States in GDP size within the next decade despite deglobalization pressures, supported by its vast domestic market, urbanization potential, and high savings. However, economic size alone does not equal economic power. Lower income levels, reliance on imported energy, limited reserve-currency status, and technological gaps mean China is unlikely to overtake the U.S. as the world’s leading economic power in the foreseeable future.