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The Math of the One Big Beautiful Bill

Mark G. Sheppard
June 29, 2025

Passing H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill, and clearing the vote threshold remains difficult for conservatives because the exact number of votes needed is somewhat challenged and even under lower threshold requirements the conservative coalition face opposing pressures. While the political future of the bill remains outstanding, evaluating the policy impact is also difficult as many of the analyses about the cost vary considerably, particularly the gap in deficit estimates, which mostly stems from different growth assumptions—because small tweaks to underlying economic parameters can swing the cost projections dramatically.

The Math of the One Big Beautiful Bill2026-01-09T00:24:30+00:00

The Election That Economists Lost

Mark G. Sheppard
February 25, 2025

In October, prior to the election, The Economist, arguably the most popular economic weekly journal, published an article entitled “America’s economy is bigger and better than ever”, this basic sentiment of topline success was echoed by a number of institutions from the Federal Reserve to BlueChip, from the OECD to a survey of top economists, and more. There was broad agreement among economists that the economy was doing fairly well, which generally bodes well for a presidential re-election bid, however the incumbent party not only lost the election, but the incumbent president was pushed out of the general election over falling polling numbers, largely informed by rising economic discontent.

The Election That Economists Lost2026-01-10T16:13:36+00:00

New York City Employment Recovery Complete, but Uneven across Industries

Khaled Eltokhy and James Orr January 20, 2025

By the start of 2024 New York City employment had reached its pre-pandemic level of 4.7 million jobs, and more than 55,000 new jobs were added through November.  The city’s recovery from the significant pandemic-related disruptions defied some predictions though several city industries continue to face challenges. In this post we look at the industries leading the recovery and expansion of jobs, including the traditionally strong Healthcare and Professional and Business Services industries, along with Finance.  We also look at industries where job counts have not yet recovered, including Retail Trade where the adverse effects of efforts to control the pandemic, as well as the increase in remote work, continue to have an impact.

New York City Employment Recovery Complete, but Uneven across Industries2026-01-13T03:42:23+00:00

The Transformation of the Diacritic U.S. Banking System and the Advent of the Dominant Financial Institutions

Fotis Siokis
June 24, 2024

Over the past forty years, the unique U.S. banking system has faced significant competitive challenges, in a rapidly changing technological environment, along with far-reaching regulatory reforms, ushering in an era of remarkable consolidation. In this post we outline the differences of the US Banking system compared to the other global banking systems, its transformation and how it evolved over the years.

The Transformation of the Diacritic U.S. Banking System and the Advent of the Dominant Financial Institutions2026-01-13T03:43:36+00:00

New York’s Employment Recovery: Almost There but Virus Effects Linger, New Issues Emerge

Gillian Fuchs and James Orr
January 31, 2024

Nearly four years after the onset of Covid-19 how is employment in New York City faring? In this post we outline the pattern of recovery of employment in the City and show how employment in different industries is evolving. Employment has just about reached

New York’s Employment Recovery: Almost There but Virus Effects Linger, New Issues Emerge2026-01-13T03:45:38+00:00

Silicon Valley Bank failure explained

Fotis Siokis
March 28, 2023

On March 10, 2023 the American banking system suffered the second biggest bank collapse in its history. How did this happen? In this post we examine the reasons behind the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which caused tremendous jitters in the financial markets and forced the

Silicon Valley Bank failure explained2026-01-13T03:46:43+00:00

New York City’s Evolving Jobs Recovery

Maryam Fatemi and James Orr
September 7, 2022

Overall employment in New York City has not fully recovered from the huge shock it took following the Covid-19 outbreak in early 2020. But looking across industries, both the depth of the downturn and pace of recovery has been uneven.

New York City’s Evolving Jobs Recovery2026-01-13T03:47:39+00:00

Will China Surpass the U.S. to Become the Number One Economic Power?

Hengzhong Liu
June 18, 2022

This article argues that the current wave of deglobalization will not stop China from surpassing the United States as the largest economy in the next decade, but it will prevent China from becoming the No. 1 economic power in the

Will China Surpass the U.S. to Become the Number One Economic Power?2026-01-13T03:49:30+00:00

Covid-19 in New York City: The Pandemic Unequally Impacts New Yorkers in Health and Employment

Fotis Siokis
January 7, 2022

In early March 2020, the Covid-19 virus spread quickly across the United States and virulently disrupted every facet of the society. A public health crisis immediately developed into an economic crisis, as severe government restrictions were put in place to mitigate

Covid-19 in New York City: The Pandemic Unequally Impacts New Yorkers in Health and Employment2026-01-13T03:50:47+00:00

New York’s Ongoing Employment Recovery from the Pandemic

James Orr
December 13, 2021 
 
Recent employment data show New York is continuing its recovery from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the efforts to contain it, though job counts in both the state and the city have yet to reach pre-pandemic peaks Vaccinations, looser restrictions on activities and a recovering
New York’s Ongoing Employment Recovery from the Pandemic2026-01-13T03:51:47+00:00
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