Policy Analysis
Policy Analyses are timely, objective investigations of current policy issues that are of regional, national, and international scope.
Regional
New York’s Employment Recovery: Almost There but Virus Effects Linger, New Issues Emerge
Gillian Fuchs and James Orr January 31, 2024 Nearly four years after the onset of Covid-19 how is employment in New York City faring? In this post we outline the pattern of recovery of employment in the City and show how employment
A Look at the New York State Budget
James Orr and Merih Uctum
February 10, 2021
Governor Cuomo recently announced the NY State budget for this year, the FY 2022 Executive Budget Financial Plan. Is New York in a deep budget hole? Will a new Federal spending bill help? In this post we dissect the executive budget and examine how economic developments affect budget projections and the bottom line for the current budget plan. Read more
New York’s Economy Trying to Heal From the COVID-19 Crisis
Fadime Demiralp and James Orr
October 31, 2020
Deep declines in employment across New York resulted from the efforts to contain the COVID-19 outbreak. Where does the economy stand? What factors will affect the recovery? We address these questions in this post. Read more
New York City Jobs Up but Growth Moderates Through the Third Quarter 2019
Meng-Ting Chen and James Orr
December 29, 2019
New York City employment is now well into its ninth year of growth and jobs across a variety of sector continue to expand. Read more
Sturdy Job Growth in New York City Continues
James Orr
April 29, 2019
The recovery and expansion of employment in New York City that began following the financial crisis and downturn continued into its ninth year in early 2019. This post examines recent overall job growth in the city and... Read more
Why is New York Job Growth Slowing?
Fadime Demiralp and James Orr
October 31, 2018
Employment data through the third quarter of 2018 show job growth in New York City and State continuing to moderate from the relatively high rates reached earlier in the recovery. In this post we examine the sources of this cooling off of job... Read more
New York City Job Growth: Healthy, but Divergent Across Sectors
James Orr
March 27, 2018
Recently-released employment data show job growth in New York City in 2017 was down only mildly from its pace in 2016 and is still above the comparable nationwide rate. On an average annual basis, employment in New York City expanded 2.0 percent in 2017 following a gain of... Read more
Is the New York Economy Slowing Down?
James Orr
October 26, 2017
Recently-released employment figures show the number of jobs in New York State and New York City declined sharply in September: The state lost about 34,000 jobs and about two-thirds of the decline occurred in the city, suggesting a possible slowing of the robust employment... Read more
Rising Interest Rates, Mortgage Interest Rates, and New York Home Prices
Richmond Kyei Fordjour
September 15, 2017
Conventional wisdom tells us that a rise in interest rates hurts the real estate sector since higher mortgage rates discourage first-time homebuyers and raises costs of existing mortgages. Surprisingly, the recent trends in mortgage rates and in housing market indices do not support this view. Read more
How Important is the Finance Sector to the New York City Economy?
James Orr
June 09, 2017
Finance has long been considered a key sector in the New York City economy. The sector generates about 30 percent of the earnings of workers throughout the city, and thus developments in the sector are critically important for the performance of the overall city economy. Read more
The New York City Labor Market: Recent Developments
James Orr
April 04/Revised April 09, 2017
Recently-revised employment data show New York City jobs grew 2.2 percent in 2016, more than 90,000 jobs, well above the national growth rate of 1.8 percent and statewide growth of 1.5 percent. The relatively strong job performance in the city compared to the nation did not develop... Read more
New York Labor Market Developments
James Orr
December 21, 2016
The jobs data for the third quarter of 2016 showed statewide employment levels up 1.2 percent over the same period in 2015, somewhat below the comparable national rate of 1.7 percent. Across the state growth rates varied quite a bit though New York City continued to drive the expansion. The... Read more
National
The Fed’s enlarged balance sheet: The Expanding Importance of Bank Reserves (Part II)
Fotis Siokis
September 30, 2020
With an enlarged balance sheet, what is the new operating regime of the Fed (or how does it conduct monetary policy) and what are its options? In this second post we address these questions. Read more
The Federal Reserve and its balance sheet: A Herculean task in mitigating the economic effects of the coronavirus pandemic (Part I)
Fotis Siokis
July 30, 2020
Global pandemic events in history, beyond death and destruction, have caused major economic fallout and collapses in international trade. Read more
The New York Economy Amid the Coronavirus Crisis
James Orr and Zhuo Xi
April 26, 2020
New York, along with the rest of the nation and world, is in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. It is hard to comprehend the tragic loss of more than almost 17,000 lives (as of April 27) statewide including more than 11,000 in New York City. Read more
International
The Pandemic and the Emerging Markets Crisis: How Fragile are the Economies?
Utku Demir and Merih Uctum
June 11, 2020
The Emerging Market (EM) economies that came out of the 2008 financial crisis relatively faster than advanced economies are hard hit by a quadruple-whammy this time: the pandemic, capital outflows, economic recession, and debt crisis.Read more
Lessons from Taiwan’s Healthcare Reform
William B. Thorne
November 27, 2019
Taiwan's single-payer National Health Insurance system was implemented in 1995 and designed using the U.S. Medicare program as a template.Read more
Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional After All?
Fotios Siokis
October 21, 2019
What are unconventional monetary policies? How are they implemented in the European Union? What does the future look like? In this article we address these questions. On September 12,2019, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a new monetary stimulus package... Read more